US midterms: 2 days to go – what polls say as Trump, El-Sayed hit the trail 

With two days to the United States midterm elections, Democratic and Republican leaders are making last-ditch efforts to woo voters, with the cost-of-living crisis, exacerbated by the US-Israel war on Iran, becoming one of the key talking points.

According to the latest survey, Democrats are still ahead of the Republicans, but several closely fought Senate races may decide which party ends up in control of the US Congress.

On Sunday, President Donald Trump will be campaigning in Iowa and Kansas, while Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate who has faced an increased wave of Islamophobic attacks, will be holding events in Michigan.

Here is what to know:

What do the latest US midterm polls say?

Democrats continue to lead Republicans by 51.5 percent to 43.1 percent, according to the latest RealClearPolling average.

A national THP/MM survey conducted on October 28 and 29 put Democrats ahead by 54 percent to 41 percent, while an Emerson College poll conducted from October 24 to 26 showed a 10-point Democratic lead.

Natalie Jackson, a political analyst and pollster, told Al Jazeera that the results reflected public dissatisfaction with Trump and the economy.

“Polling shows an environment that is pretty favourable to the Democrats. The president is very unpopular, Americans feel the pinch of high costs, which are partly due to tariffs and the war in Iran, and the general sentiment is that Republicans did not deliver in the last two years.”

In Kansas, a Washington Post-Schar School poll released on Friday suggested Democrat Adam Hamilton was leading against Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 52 percent to 43 percent.

But another Emerson College survey indicated a tighter race, with Hamilton ahead of Marshall by 50 percent to 47percent.

Doug Heye, a Republican strategist and former communications director for the Republican National Committee, questioned the nine-point lead of the Washington Post-Schar School survey.

“I don’t know how it plays out, but, you know, we saw an outlier poll in Iowa just two years ago that caused a lot of damage to the whole polling industry,” Heye said.

He was referring to a Des Moines Register poll published days before the 2024 presidential election that showed Kamala Harris leading Trump by three percentage points in Iowa. Trump went on to win the state by about 13 points, a difference of 16 points from the poll’s margin.

“A lot of Republicans just don’t want to answer calls from pollsters,” he added.

Jackson, the political analyst, also said polling might not accurately reflect the result of individual Senate contests.

“In some individual races – particularly the close Senate races – we could see polling error that shifts the race in one direction or another,” she said.

“Pollsters have reported some potential issues with getting Republicans to answer polls. That might indicate that polls are underestimating Republicans, but we don’t know until the votes are counted.”

What happened on the campaign trail in the past 24 hours?

As the election nears, both parties are focusing their final campaign messages on the economy and the cost of living.

While Democrats have been focusing on affordability issues, Trump has been conducting telephone rallies for Republican candidates in closely contested races.

Heye said Republicans were struggling to convince voters that their economic policies would improve the situation in the country.

Asked whether Republicans had found a convincing closing message, he said: “No, they haven’t. That’s a big part of their challenge.”

The Republican strategist said candidates should focus on issues voters were raising, particularly the cost of energy, healthcare, groceries and other everyday expenses.

“Families are making very real economic decisions; you have to address to them what you’re going to do to solve those problems,” Heye said.

Celinda Lake, a Democratic strategist and pollster working with El-Sayed’s campaign in Michigan, said Democrats were also facing questions about what they would deliver if they controlled Congress.

“The feelings about the Democrats are negative, too, which is very different from, say, 2018, when Democrats were positively perceived,” she said.

Lake said while many voters were seeking change, they were still unsure what either of the parties would do.

Trump is scheduled to hold rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. The president had initially cancelled both appearances before reversing his decision on Friday.

In Iowa, in one of the contested Senate races, Trump will campaign with Republican US Representative Ashley, who faces Democrat Josh Turek. In Kansas, Senator Marshall is also looking for re-election against Democrat Adam Hamilton in a tight contest.

This state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, but rising farming costs and opposition to Trump’s immigration crackdown have made this race unexpectedly competitive.

Heye said Trump should not have cancelled the appearances in the first place.

“They never should have been cancelled to begin with,” he said. “Whether they help or not, they certainly help Trump to show that I’m out there trying to do the things to get my people over the line.”

Meanwhile, El-Sayed is scheduled to campaign in Detroit and Southfield, Michigan, as he seeks to defeat Republican Mike Rogers in the Senate race.

Lake, who is working with El-Sayed’s campaign, said the candidate had made affordability key to his message.

“He’s very clear. He says, ‘Money out of politics, money in your pockets, and healthcare for all.'”

She said the Michigan race would depend heavily on voter turnout.

“I think the race is going to be really close. What we’re looking at is turnout,” she said.

How many Americans have already voted?

More than 51 million Americans have already voted, according to reports. Both parties have encouraged voters to cast their ballots using the mail-in system or make plans to vote on Tuesday.

But early-voting numbers do not show which party will win, because they do not establish how those voters voted.

Lake, the Democratic strategist, said turnout would be one of the most important factors in the elections.

“Did Trump really rally the Republicans? Did the Democrats come out in record numbers?” she asked.

She also identified young voters and the gender gap as important indicators to follow during the election.

Jackson, the political analyst, said the final two days will probably not bring major changes to the national political environment.

“It’s unlikely that anything really shifts in the national environment. We could see some local developments in some of these races, but by now things are pretty locked in.”

Can Democrats take control of Congress?

A total of 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats are up for grabs.

Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to win the majority in both chambers.

While polling suggests Democrats are ahead, control of the Senate will depend on individual contests, including races in Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina and Alaska.

Jackson said the polling provided a clearer picture of the national political environment than the likely outcome of individual Senate races.

“We can be fairly confident that Democrats will win the House majority, but the Senate picture is unclear,” she told Al Jazeera.

Heye, the Republican strategist, also pointed to the differences between the House and Senate contests.

“The Senate is so campaign-, state- and candidate-specific. It’s a much harder read,” he said.

What happens next?

Candidates have Sunday and Monday to make their final appeals to voters before they head to the polls on Tuesday.

Polling stations will begin closing on Tuesday evening, with the first results expected shortly afterwards. However, some of the closely fought races might take longer.

Heye said he would be watching the first results in Indiana and Kentucky for indications of how the election might unfold.

“Yeah, I start with the two states that close earliest, which are Indiana and Kentucky,” he said.

But Jackson cautioned that the results in individual Senate races could differ from what the final polls suggest.

“That is always possible with polling,” she said, adding that the scale and direction of any polling errors would become clear once the votes were counted.